In recent weeks we have begun to see the first signs of improvements in the global economy. Much to everyone’s relief, the financial markets are reporting positive activity, major economies have moved out of recession, job losses have started to slow down and major financial institutions are talking about positive results and growth in 2010. According to the Hong Kong government’s half-yearly economic report, ‘after a dismal Q1 Hong Kong’s overall economic situation has showed clear signs of improvements in Q2’. The report goes on to say that faster growth in the Mainland economy and the easing of recessionary forces in the advanced economies has seen the GDP register a smaller decline of 3.8% in Q2 compared with 7.8% in Q1.

However, despite the encouraging news, we have to bear in mind that the world has just been through the worst economic crises since the Great Depression. Although there have been marked improvements and stock markets and investor confidence appear to be on the rise, the downturn is not over yet. The economic situation is still uncertain and the official end of a recession does not necessarily mean an immediate return to sustainable growth.

Much like the aftermath of 9/11, the world and people’s outlooks have taken a big hit. Even for those who have been fortunate enough to retain their jobs, the world has become a different place, especially in comparison to the not-so-long-ago boom years of 2004-2007. Despite the change in perceptions and the general feelings of defeat, we have to position ourselves correctly to take advantage of the first signs of an upturn in the economy and make sure we are prepared should we ever find ourselves in a similar situation.

The job market, rather obviously, is linked to exactly how well the business world is doing. On the financial services and corporate side, if IPOs are happening and M&A activity is high, law firms in turn get instructions, the work flow increases and recruitment agencies are briefed to find the right lawyers. But the days of the seemingly endless need for lawyers to beef-up commercial practice groups are over, and firms are now being very, very cautious about their recruitment needs.

The past six months

Since the start of 2009 the legal job market has certainly been an interesting sector to work in. Rather contradictorily, there have large amounts of uncertainty and redundancies alongside renewed optimism and some hiring. During Q1 the market was dead. Lawyers and legal support staff were being made redundant at a large number of firms, of which most proclaimed no more hiring until 2010. Legal professionals left floating in the market, faced with the distressing prospect of long term unemployment, did not know where to turn or what their next step should be. Some considered a change of career while others chose to take some time out of the sector.

At the start of Q2, during April and May, firms slowly started putting their feelers back into the market but mostly for very specific hires only. The expected rush for hundreds of experienced R&I lawyers and litigators amounted to a handful of placements, with most firms using internal resources. There was a slight increase in more senior level hires, including partners and lawyers with specialist skills, eg shipping or employment law, where retraining internally was not an option. We also saw an increase in requests for candidates with very specific sets of skills, including multiple languages, a magic circle background, a red brick university education and business development expertise with very specific levels of experience and PQE levels. Law firms were not actively looking to hire but happy to extend an interview should the perfect candidate come along. Towards the end of Q2 in June there was another small round of retrenchments in some of Hong Kong’s big name law firms.

Since then, there has been an increase in work within most firms and staff growth is anticipated for 2010. ‘In what may be another signal of economic recovery, the number of legal positions advertised in Hong Kong and China has definitely improved in the second half of 2009,’ says Doron Vermaat, Managing Director at jobsite NewChinaCareer.com. ‘It’s still a tough market but there are signs of growth around the region.’ Despite these optimistic reports and a strong desire to put the recession to bed, we should remain cautiously optimistic – we still have Q4 2009 to look forward to.

The next six months

The question on everyone’s lips is whether we are being primed for another round of redundancies, or whether we can we start booking that ski holiday to Europe safe in the knowledge that our employment is secure.

The legal job market in Hong Kong currently contains an unprecedented number of highly educated and employable professionals, but very few jobs. Add to this the newly qualified lawyers arriving towards the back end of 2009, and anyone will agree that it is going to be a very testing time for those looking for a new job and the recruiters responsible for finding it.

Law firms are understandably cautious in bringing on new hires until work levels are easier to predict, but I firmly believe things will be looking a lot brighter from now on. Here are my reasons:

• Overreaction. Firms that have made too many redundancies may be thinking about bringing in one or two new people to help out overworked teams.
• Business is still being done. Obviously there will not be as many IPOs in 2009 as in previous years, but the corporate and finance world is picking up.
• Growth in other areas. There has been a higher demand for staff in R&I, compliance, regulatory and in-house which creates opportunities for lawyers to switch to a different practice area.
• Growth in other jurisdictions. Those willing to look slightly further afield to Singapore, Beijing, Shanghai, Mumbai or elsewhere for their next role could have more luck.
• Hong Kong. The city may have been through a turbulent time, like all other major financial capitals, but we are officially out of recession and the city’s buzz, albeit more hushed than before, has returned.
• Law firms planning for growth. Daily conversations with Hong Kong-based law firms reveal that they are putting plans in place to increase their market share, which means increased recruitment.

As a prospective employer, Michael Gagie, Managing Partner at Harneys (Hong Kong), says: ‘One positive to come out of the recent downturn and the subsequent reorganisation and refocusing of practice groups by some of the larger law firm players has been the increase in availability of talented lawyers with local market experience and connections. For growing practices like our own, this has provided the opportunity to strengthen existing teams and to bring in new skill sets with an eye on the increased economic activity that we are hopeful will flow as we move into 2010.’

The signs pointing towards an upturn in job opportunities are there, but job seekers should by no means take it for granted. Here are some facts to be aware of when initiating a job search:
• There is a huge number of candidates in the job market, which means stricter competition for every role. If there is no urgency to fill the role, firms can afford to pick and choose in waiting for the perfect person to come along.
• A gap in your CV is okay, but if you have tried to keep busy it comes across much better, especially if you are an experienced lawyer. Employers can see you have the experience and skill set, but if you’ve been out of work for the best part of a year it might speak louder than your abilities.
• It pays to be flexible. Don’t be blinkered by the position or place. There are great opportunities in different practices, in both small and large firms, in Hong Kong and other Asian cities.
• Relax your package demands. If you have been out of work for a while, be open-minded about the package you would consider to get you back on the right track. Don’t by any means sell yourself short, but be open and rely on your recruiter for advice and to negotiate a good salary on your behalf.

As a bigger volume of roles become available, more professionals currently available in the marketplace will become employed. We are already seeing the best people around finding their way back into work with ease. As a result, firms who are delaying hiring, expecting the top lawyers to still be around in Q1 of 2010, may have to rethink their approach and bring recruitment forward in order to secure the best quality staff available. Of course this bodes well for any out-of-work legal professional.

What’s coming?

Barring another immediate economic meltdown, all the signs are telling us we can look forward to some slow but steady and calculated economic growth over the next 12 months. This will trickle down to the job market as firms start adding additional skills and experience. I would like to hope that we would see continued slow growth until March 2010 before it starts to build up pace. Everyone was happy to see the back of 2008, but I think new year’s eve 2009 will be as, if not more, welcome.

In conclusion, the job market is picking up. It is better than it was three months ago, and in three months’ time it will be better than now. The good times are not rolling just yet, but they are definitely on the move.

Director, Asia-Pacific
CML Recruitment
r.green@cmlor.com.hk

從噩夢中慢慢醒來：香港的法律就業市場
Rob Green稱經濟低迷可能令很多人的就業情況變得暗淡，但對於能跨過逆境的律師而言，預期情況將會有所好轉。

在最近數星期，我們已開始看到全球經濟改善的第一個跡象：金融市場活動趨於活躍，主要的經濟體走出了衰退，失業人數開始放緩，各個主要金融機構都在估 2010年的業績將會出現正增長。大家都為此而鬆了一口氣。根據香港政府的半年度經濟報告，「經過了一個十分暗淡的第一季後，在第二季度，香港的整體經濟情況已有明顯改善」。

報告續稱：內地經濟以更快速的步伐增長，而發達經濟體所經歷的衰退亦告緩和，帶來了第二季本地生產總值3.8%的跌幅，較諸第一季的7.8%有所改善。然而，儘管存在令人鼓舞的消息，但我們仍必須牢記，全球只是剛剛經歷了自「大蕭條」以來的最嚴重經濟危機。雖然情況已有明顯改善，而證券市場和投資者的信心似乎正在上升，但低迷的時期還沒有過去，經濟狀況仍然不明朗，而衰退的正式結束，並不必然意味著立即回到可持續增長。

正如9/11事件發生後的境況，世界和各國人民對前景的展望遭到沉重衝擊。即使是那些一直幸運地保住工作的人，這世界亦已經有所不同，特別是與過去的2004-2007景氣時期比較。儘管存在觀念上的改變和一般的失敗感覺，我們必須正確地為自己定位，以便能把握經濟好轉的第一個兆頭，並確保我們在面對如此的境況時，已充分地作好了準備。

很明顯，就業市場與商業世界的表現是連於一起的。在金融服務和企業方面，假如有首次公開發售進行，或是併購活動頻繁，律師行便將會接獲客戶的委託，其工作流量將會增加，而人力資源公司亦會接獲代為物色合適律師的委託。但律師行無休止地聘請律師來協助處理商業法工作的日子看來已一去不返。在徵聘人員方面，律師行現在是採取極為審慎的態度。

過去六個月

自2009年初開始，法律就業市場肯定是一個饒有趣味的工作領域。頗為矛盾的是，於存在大量不確定性和裁員的同時，卻又有重拾的樂觀態度和人員招聘的出現。第一季度的市場是呆滯的，有很多律師和法律支援部門的人員被遣散，其中大部分律師行均宣稱在2010年之前不會再招聘員工。法律專業人員在市場尋覓就業機會，面對長期失業的令人憂慮前景，不知道何去何從，也不知道下一步應該如何走。一些人考慮轉業，另一些人則選擇暫時離開這行業。

從第二季度開始，在4月和5月間，律師行逐漸開始把觸角投放回市場，但大多只屬非常特定的聘用。市場上預期急需數百名富經驗的破產重整律師和訴訟律師，而大多數律師行則使用內部的資源。在高層人員方面的聘用也有輕微增加，包括具專業技能的合夥人和律師，例如航運法和僱傭法，而進行內部培訓並非權宜之計。我們還看到，申請人需要具備其他能力和條件，包括多國語言、曾在著名國際大行服務的經驗、紅磚大學教育背景，以及業務發展的專業知識，並須達至非常具體的在取得學歷或專業資格後的經驗水平。律師行目前並沒有積極地進行招聘，但假如有非常合適的人選，亦樂意給他們進行面試。在接近第二季度尾聲的6月份，香港的一些大型律師行還曾有過一小輪的裁員。

自此以後，大多數律師行的工作量便一直在增加，預計到了2010年，員工的數目將會有所增長。NewChinaCareer.com的董事總經理 DoronVermaat說：「香港和內地的法律職位招聘廣告在2009年下半年有明顯增加，這可能是經濟復甦的另一個信號。」他說：「目前的情況仍然艱難，但在區內出現經濟增長的跡象。」儘管有這些樂觀報告發出，以及存在將經濟衰退終止的強烈願望，但我們仍應該保持謹慎樂觀的態度—我們還須看2009年第四季度的表現如何。

未來六個月

大家所談論的議題是，我們是在等待另一輪裁員潮的來臨，還是我們預期將會保得住自己的工作，因此可以放心地預訂歐洲的滑雪假期。

香港目前的情況是，法律就業市場存在前所未有的大量高學歷待業專業人士，但就業機會卻不多。加上將會在2009年後期投入就業市場的剛獲認許資格的律師，任何人都會同意，對於那些尋求新職，以及協助求職人士尋求新職的人力資源公司而言，這將會是一個受嚴峻考驗的時期。

律師行在招聘新員工方面會採取非常審慎的態度，直到其工作量達至一個可預見的水平。他們的此舉是可以理解的，但我堅信從現在起情況將會大為改善。我的理由如下：
• 反應過度。已經遣散了太多員工的律師行可能會考慮增聘一兩名新人來協助該些其工作量已屬過重的員工。
• 業務仍在進行。2009年的首次公開發售顯然不會如以往數年那麼多，但企業和金融方面的業務正在增加。
• 在其他範疇的增長。破產重整、遵規、監管和內務律師方面的工作機會正在增加，為律師提供機會轉移至不同的業務領域工作。
• 其他司法管轄區的增長。對於願意前往稍微遠一些的地方，如：新加坡、北京、上海、孟買或其他地方開創另一番事業的人而言，運氣將會屬於他們。
• 香港。這城市可能也像所有其他主要金融中心一樣，經歷了一個動盪的時期，但現時她已正式擺脫了衰退並恢復其動感，儘管不如以往那麼活躍。
• 律師行的增長規劃。在我與香港律師行負責人的日常對話中，得悉他們將會制訂計劃擴大其市場份額，這意味著他們將會增聘員工。

作為一個潛在的僱主，Harneys (Hong Kong)的主管合夥人Michael Gagie說：「對於經歷了近期的經濟低迷，並隨後對其業務部門進行重組和重新定位的一些較大型律師事務所來說，正面的結果是具本地市場經驗和聯繫的能幹律師的供應有所增加。正如我們自己的業務亦在不斷發展，這為我們提供了加強現有隊伍和引進新技能的機會，而我們是著眼於踏入2010年後，經濟活動預期會趨於活躍。」

該跡象表明，就業機會好轉的情況是有的，但求職者絕對不應該想當然。以下是一些在找工作時需要注意的事項：

• 就業市場內，目前有龐大數目的求職者，這意味著在每一個範疇都存在著激烈的競爭。如果律師行沒有填補空缺的迫切需要，它們寧願等待最合
適的人選出現時再作考慮。
• 如果在你的工作履歷中存在一個時間空白，這並非太大問題，但是如果你能夠保持自己一直受僱，這將會更好，特別是如果你是一位富經驗律師的話。這樣，僱主可以察覺到你具有所須的經驗和技能；但是，如果你在過去一年的黃金時段中並未受僱，這總會令他對你的工作能力有所懷疑。
• 採取靈活態度總有好處。不要以短淺目光來看待所處的職位或工作所在。不論在香港還是其他亞洲城市，亦不論是小型還是大型律師行的哪一業務範疇，都有潛在的巨大發展機會。
• 放寬你的待遇要求。如果你已經失去工作一段相當時間，你應該對能讓你返回適當工作崗位的工作、所獲得的待遇，持開放的態度。這絕不是要求你將自己降格，但要保持開放，並聽取你的人力資源公司給你提供的意見，讓它來為你爭取一個良好的薪酬待遇。

由於就業市場所供應的職位有所增加，因此有更多就業市場原可供應的專業人員已經就業。我們已察覺到，在我們周圍的一些最優秀人才，他們已經輕易地找到了合適的工作。因此，那些拖延聘用，相信在2010年第一季度仍然可以招聘到最合適人選的律師行，它們可能需要調整策略，並開始進行招聘，以確保能夠聘請到最好的員工。當然，對於目前失去了工作的法律專業人員而言，這確實是一個好景象。

未來將會如何？

除非有另一眼前的經濟危機出現，否則所有跡象都告訴我們，在未來12個月，我們可以期待將會有一些雖然緩慢，但屬於穩定和可計算的經濟增長。這將會帶動就業市場，因為律師行會因著所須的額外技能和經驗而增補人手。我謹希望，2010年3月之前看到持續而緩慢的增長，之後步伐便開始加快。每個人都高興 2008年離我們而去，但我認為2009年的新年除夕夜將是同樣值得慶祝(或是更值得慶祝)。

總之，就業市場正在復甦之中。它比三個月前要好，而未來的三個月會比現在更好。這樣的好景雖然並非洶湧而來，但肯定是正朝著我們而來。

Director, Asia-Pacific
CML Recruitment
r.green@cmlor.com.hk